Human and Environmental Bias Affecting Risk Perception in Military Radiological and Nuclear Operations

Abstract

Abstract
The urban military operating environment may offer favorable conditions for combat involving asymmetric actions or 4th generation warfare which may include chemical, biological, radiological / nuclear (CBRN) events. The CBRN context is characterized by threats capable of producing future detriment. The harm may be produced by intentional release of hazardous materials into the operational environment. This study deals with an environment deliberately contaminated by radioactive materials because of the activation of a radiological dispersive device (RDD). A computer simulation of the radioactive scenario was performed in order to produce useful information which in turn may be used both to support decision-making and training. The main goal was to assess the risk of developing radioinduced solid cancer considering the interaction between local environmental variables and cognitive biases, represented by the Dunning-Kruger specific coefficient. The findings highlight intuitive correlations between local atmospheric stability and cognitive bias affecting decisions. The findings also show that, especially in the militaryoperational context, the methodology proposed for the assessment of environment-human interactions may be decisive for correctly direct available resources, both human and material, in the way of reducing the operational risk.

Description