APPLICATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELER (STEM) TO AN ANTHROPIC SMALLPOX DIFFUSION SCENARIO

Abstract

The use of mathematical models to simulate the diffusion of biological agents represents an essential tool to understand the dynamics of epidemic spread. In particular, mathematical models can be applied to scenarios of deliberate release of biological warfare agents, e.g., during simulations of a terrorist attack, to evaluate
their potential effects and to study possible strategies to implement effective countermeasures. In this paper, an open-source software named Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) has been applied to a possible scenario of deliberate release of smallpox virus by an unknown terrorist group in Italy. By providing boundary conditions derived from the literature, and making conservative preliminary assumptions, it was possible to recreate a reference scenario for the voluntary diffusion of smallpox, while providing an insight into the application of user-friendly tools for the implementation of epidemiological models as a support for decision makers in the field of biosecurity.
Keywords: Epidemiological modelling; smallpox; bioterrorism; countermeasures; Susceptible / Exposed / Infectious / Recovered (SEIR) model.

Description