Astrophysical existential threats: a comparative analysis
Received: 08 June 2022, Revised: 17 July 2022, Accepted: 15 Nov 2022, Available online: 21 Dec 2022, Version of Record: 21 Dec 2022
Niamh Burns
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, American University, Washington, DC 20016, USA
William T. Parsons*
Affiliation:
Department of Physics, American University, Washington, DC 20016, USA
*
Author for correspondence: William T. Parsons, E-mail: parsons@american.edu
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Abstract
Using a simple, coarse-grained Poisson process model, we calculate – for seven types of astrophysical catastrophe – both their individual and combined threat to complex lifeforms (extraterrestrial intelligences (ETIs)) throughout the Milky Way Galaxy. In terms of cumulative effects, we calculate that ETIs are likely to be astrophysically driven extinct on timescales of roughly once every 100 million years. In terms of comparative effects, large bolide impactors represent the most significant type of astrophysical contribution to the galaxy-wide debilitation of hypothesized ETI civilizations. Nonetheless, we conclude that astrophysical existential threats – whether taken singly or in combination – are likely insufficient, alone, to explain the Fermi Paradox. Astrophysical catastrophes, while both deadly and ubiquitous, do not appear to be frequent enough to wipe out every species in the Galaxy before they can attain or utilize spacefaring status.
Conflict of interest
“Authors state no conflict of interest”
Funding Information
This research received no external funding or grants
Peer review:
Peer review under responsibility of Defence Science Journal
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